- Israel has used its air force to impunity its enemies.
- Syria’s collapse now gives it unprecedented power in the air right up to the border with Iran.
- “Israel now has open skies for Iran,” a Middle East analyst told BI.
The Israeli Air Force has long been regarded as the premier air fleet in the Middle East, supplied in large part with US-made aircraft and munitions. But it has gone further in the past year, showing that its aircraft can hit any of its adversaries with impunity and establish unprecedented air superiority over vast swathes of the region.
It destroyed Russian and Iranian-built air defense systems in Iran. brave Iran’s leaders will strike back with less defense. It destroyed Hezbollah’s missile arsenal in southern Lebanon and killed its top leader. Precision air strikes In his underground headquarters.
Its power in Syria was so strong that the Assad regime and Russia secretly asked Israel to protect Assad’s military. Allegedly classified documents found in the country after the fall of that brutal regime in December.
Given that decline, Israel seized the opportunity. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has destroyed the vast majority of the country’s air defenses and Syrian military stockpiles.
Throughout the 15-month war, prompted by the October 7, 2023 terrorist massacre in Israel by Hamas, the IAF has emerged supreme and basked in its moments.
“Fighter pilots, if they wish, can now happily fly in pairs, at any altitude, at any range, anywhere in Israel’s first defense circle, with visible operating systems.” Report In late December the Israeli news site Ynet.
Israel has long had the most powerful air force in the Middle East and the most powerful and technologically advanced anywhere in the world. It boasts over 600 aircraft and over 30,000 active personnel, including no fewer than 50,000 in reserve. It operates the world’s second largest F-16 fleet and is the only regional country that currently flies the F-35 stealth jet. Additionally, Israel has Own version of fifth generation aircraftA privilege no other country enjoys.
The IAF consists overwhelmingly of American-made aircraft, including the Apache and Black Hawk helicopters. Israel also flies and recently signed a large fleet of F-15s A $5.2 billion deal 25 for highly advanced F-15IA variants.
The IAF plays an important role in the defense of Israel. This gave the small country a critical qualitative edge over its larger Arab counterpart in historical conflicts, notably the June 1967 Six-Day War.
The Israeli Air Force flies numerous US-made aircraft such as the F-15E Strike Eagle. JACK GUEZ/AFP via Getty Images
The IAF’s new hegemony went beyond previous wars. For example, it previously destroyed a Soviet-built Syrian surface-to-air missile battery in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley in a complex operation in 1982 and shot down more than 80 Syrian fighter jets without causing any damage in return. While the December operation saw IAF strikes across Syria, the operation was not as sophisticated or dangerous as that historical episode; In the last operation many air defenses were abandoned or in a state of low readiness.
“One of the reasons we know Israel is restraining is probably a recently disclosed secret agreement with Russia and Syria in which Israel agreed to refrain from mass targeting the Syrian military,” said Sebastian Roblin, a widely published military aviation journalist.
Israel launched a massive long-range air and drone strike against Iran on the night of October 26 in retaliation for Iran’s missile barrage against it on October 1. The IAF led the attack targeting some Syrian air defenses.
The IAF also used Iraqi airspace that October night and Targeted early warning radars and sensors In both Syria and Iraq, those were part of a network established by Iran in the region to detect incoming Israeli attacks. While the IAF used standoff weapons, including air-launched ballistic missilesSome Israeli aircraft are believed to have penetrated Iranian airspace.
“From what we currently know, some Israeli aircraft are reported to have violated Iranian airspace, although far from what I’ve seen,” Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence agency RANE, told BI.
“It was partly a demonstration of capability and partly an operational requirement to effectively hit deep targets,” Bohl said.
Israel said some of the planes had entered Iranian airspace, possibly covertly Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II jet and the newly released long-range drones. Roblin said it was unclear whether the planes dropped weapons on Iran. They can help there “accurately locate key targets” and guide weapons launched by other aircraft over significant distances.
“This attack certainly had the effect of eliminating the defensive advantage of Iran’s more advanced air defense system (the Russian S-300 system),” Roblin said. However, as was the case in Syria before December, Iran’s remaining air defenses “still have some value in compelling use of more expensive standoff munitions and possibly absorbing a percentage of incoming weapons.”
Israel’s campaign against the remnants of the Syrian military has major implications for Iran. If Israeli airspace is allowed in Syrian airspace, Israel can fly its tanker aircraft closer to Iranian airspace than previously possible.
“If medium/high-altitude air defenses are truly completely destroyed, then Israel’s generally vulnerable tanker aircraft could actually theoretically enter Syrian airspace and refuel fighters, which would be able to launch high-volume strikes on Iran,” Roblin said.
By excluding Syrian air defenses, Bohl believes that “Israel now has open skies to Iran.”
Re-establishing significant Syrian air defenses will likely take years.
“The Israeli attack on equipment that survived the one-two-punch of the fall of the Assad regime means that it will take much longer for Syria to rebuild an air- and ground-based defense capability by buying expensive new equipment,” Roblin said. “Therefore, Israel’s ability to attack targets at will has been enhanced, even though it was already substantial.”
Wind power, of course, has its limits. of Israel Aerial bombardment About two-thirds of all buildings in Gaza were damaged, but this was a foot patrol Has found and killed the radical leader of HamasWho planned the 10/7 attacks. Similarly, waves of Israeli airstrikes have failed to deter Iran from developing nuclear weapons and enriching uranium.
As Russia’s influence declines, Türkiye looks set to become Syria’s new main military backer. Ankara has already offered to help Damascus Restructuring the Syrian military.
“For now, Israel can ignore Syria as a defensive layer for Iran; it’s just geography that flies,” RANE’s Bohl said. “But this is unlikely to be a permanent situation, and eventually, Syria’s air defenses will return to some capacity.”
“And if Türkiye supplies them, (that) could complicate Israel’s regional strategy in a new way.”
Paul Eden is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes on Middle East developments, military affairs, politics and history. His articles have appeared in various publications focusing on the region.
